Participatory Causal Loop Diagrams Building for Supporting Decision-Makers Integrating Flood Risk Management in an Urban Regeneration Process.

Several modeling tools commonly used for supporting flood risk assessment and management are highly effective in representing physical phenomena, but provide a rather limited understanding of the multiple implications that flood risk and flood risk reduction measures have on highly complex systems such as urban areas. In fact, most of the available modeling tools do not fully account for this complexity-and related uncertainty-which heavily affects the interconnections between urban systems evolution and flood risk, ultimately resulting in an ineffective flood risk management. The present research proposes an innovative methodological framework to support decision-makers involved in an urban regeneration process at a planning/strategic level, accounting for the multi-dimensional implications of flood risk and of different flood risk management strategies. The adopted approach is based on the use of System Thinking principles and participatory System Dynamics modeling techniques, and pursues an integration between scientific and stakeholder knowledge. Reference is made to one of the case studies of the CUSSH and CAMELLIA projects, namely Thamesmead (London), a formerly inhospitable marshland currently undergoing a process of urban regeneration, and perceived as being increasingly vulnerable to flooding. It represents an interesting opportunity for building a replicable modeling approach to integrate urban development dynamics with flood risk, ultimately supporting policy and decision-makers in identifying mitigation/prevention measures and understanding how they could help achieve multi-dimensional benefits (e.g., environmental, social and economic).

Co-producing knowledge on the use of urban natural space: Participatory system dynamics modelling to understand a complex urban system.

Decision-makers are increasingly asked to act differently in how they respond to complex urban challenges, recognising the value in bringing together and integrating cross-disciplinary, cross-sectoral knowledge to generate effective solutions. Participatory modelling allows to bring stakeholders together, enhance knowledge and understanding of a system, and identify the impacts of interventions to a given problem. This paper uses an interdisciplinary and systems approach to investigate a complex urban problem, using a participatory System Dynamics modelling process as an approach to facilitate learning and co-produce knowledge on the factors influencing the use of urban natural space. Stakeholders used a Systems Dynamics model and interface, as a tool to collectively identify pathways for improving the use of space and simulating their impacts. Under the lens of knowledge co-production, the paper reflects how such mechanisms can lead to the co-production of knowledge and social learning. The findings also contribute to identify ways of increasing the value of urban natural space focusing on urban areas undergoing physical and social transformation, such as the Thamesmead case study, London, UK.

Evaluating natural capital performance of urban development through system dynamics: A case study from London.

Natural capital plays a central role in urban functioning, reducing flooding, mitigating urban heat island effects, reducing air pollution, and improving urban biodiversity through provision of habitat space. There is also evidence on the role played by blue and green space in improving physical and mental health, reducing the burden on the health care service. Yet from an urban planning and development view, natural capital may be considered a nice to have, but not essential element of urban design; taking up valuable space which could otherwise be used for traditional built environment uses. While urban natural capital is largely recognised as a positive element, its benefits are difficult to measure both in space and time, making its inclusion in urban (re)development difficult to justify. Here, using a London case study and information provided by key stakeholders, we present a system dynamics (SD) modelling framework to assess the natural capital performance of development and aid design evaluation. A headline indicator: Natural Space Performance, is used to evaluate the capacity of natural space to provide ecosystem services, providing a semi-quantitative measure of system wide impacts of change within a combined natural, built and social system. We demonstrate the capacity of the model to explore how combined or individual changes in development design can affect natural capital and the provision of ecosystem services, for example, biodiversity or flood risk. By evaluating natural capital and ecosystem services over time, greater justification for their inclusion in planning and development can be derived, providing support for increased blue and green space within cities, improving urban sustainability and enhancing quality of life. Furthermore, the application of a SD approach captures key interactions between variables over time, showing system evolution while highlighting intervention opportunities.

Developing a programme theory for a transdisciplinary research collaboration: Complex Urban Systems for Sustainability and Health.

Background: Environmental improvement is a priority for urban sustainability and health and achieving it requires transformative change in cities. An approach to achieving such change is to bring together researchers, decision-makers, and public groups in the creation of research and use of scientific evidence. Methods: This article describes the development of a programme theory for Complex Urban Systems for Sustainability and Health (CUSSH), a four-year Wellcome-funded research collaboration which aims to improve capacity to guide transformational health and environmental changes in cities. Results: Drawing on ideas about complex systems, programme evaluation, and transdisciplinary learning, we describe how the programme is understood to "work" in terms of its anticipated processes and resulting changes. The programme theory describes a chain of outputs that ultimately leads to improvement in city sustainability and health (described in an 'action model'), and the kinds of changes that we expect CUSSH should lead to in people, processes, policies, practices, and research (described in a 'change model'). Conclusions: Our paper adds to a growing body of research on the process of developing a comprehensive understanding of a transdisciplinary, multiagency, multi-context programme. The programme theory was developed collaboratively over two years. It involved a participatory process to ensure that a broad range of perspectives were included, to contribute to shared understanding across a multidisciplinary team. Examining our approach allowed an appreciation of the benefits and challenges of developing a programme theory for a complex, transdisciplinary research collaboration. Benefits included the development of teamworking and shared understanding and the use of programme theory in guiding evaluation. Challenges included changing membership within a large group, reaching agreement on what the theory would be 'about', and the inherent unpredictability of complex initiatives.

What is Policy Analytics? An Exploration of 5 Years of Environmental Management Applications.

Our digital age is characterized by both a generalized access to data and an increased call for participation of the public and other stakeholders and communities in policy design and decision-making. This context raises new challenges for political decision-makers and analysts in providing these actors with new means and moral duties for decision support, including in the area of environmental policy. The concept of "policy analytics" was introduced in 2013 as an attempt to develop a framework, tools, and methods to address these challenges. This conceptual initiative prompted numerous research teams to develop empirical applications of this framework and to reflect on their own decision-support practice at the science-policy interface in various environmental domains around the world. During a workshop in Paris in 2018, participants shared and discussed their experiences of these applications and practices. In this paper, we present and analyze a set of applications to identify a series of key properties that underpin a policy analytics approach, in order to provide the conceptual foundation for policy analytics to address current policy design and decision-making challenges. The induced properties are demand-orientedness, performativity, normative transparency, and data meaningfulness. We show how these properties materialized through these six case studies, and we explain why we consider them key to effective policy analytics applications, particularly in environmental policy design and decision-making on environmental issues. This clarification of the policy analytics concept eventually enables us to highlight research frontiers to further improve the concept.

The CUSSH programme: supporting cities' transformational change towards health and sustainability.

This paper describes a global research programme on the complex systemic connections between urban development and health. Through transdisciplinary methods the Complex Urban Systems for Sustainability and Health (CUSSH) project will develop critical evidence on how to achieve the far-reaching transformation of cities needed to address vital environmental imperatives for planetary health in the 21st Century. CUSSH's core components include: (i) a review of evidence on the effects of climate actions (both mitigation and adaptation) and factors influencing their implementation in urban settings; (ii) the development and application of methods for tracking the progress of cities towards sustainability and health goals; (iii) the development and application of models to assess the impact on population health, health inequalities, socio-economic development and environmental parameters of urban development strategies, in order to support policy decisions; (iv) iterative in-depth engagements with stakeholders in partner cities in low-, middle- and high-income settings, using systems-based participatory methods, to test and support the implementation of the transformative changes needed to meet local and global health and sustainability objectives; (v) a programme of public engagement and capacity building. Through these steps, the programme will provide transferable evidence on how to accelerate actions essential to achieving population-level health and global climate goals through, amongst others, changing cities' energy provision, transport infrastructure, green infrastructure, air quality, waste management and housing.

Causal Loop Diagrams for supporting Nature Based Solutions participatory design and performance assessment.

The contribution of Nature Based Solutions (NBSs) for supporting climate change adaptation and water-related risks reduction is becoming increasingly relevant for policy and decision-makers, compared to 'grey infrastructures', thanks to their capability to jointly deal with a multiplicity of societal and environmental challenges, producing several co-benefits besides limiting the impacts of water-related risks. Nevertheless, their mainstreaming is still limited by several barriers, which are often related to socio-institutional (e.g. limited cooperation and stakeholders' involvement, limited awareness about NBSs impacts) rather than to technical aspects. In this context, innovative tools for NBSs planning, design, implementation and assessment are required, along with effective processes capable of supporting stakeholders' participation. The present research aims to propose a shift in the approach to NBSs design, based on the early stakeholders' involvement in the identification, modelling and performance assessment in terms of benefits and, particularly, co-benefits production. A multi-step methodology was implemented for the purpose, combining both individual and participatory activities. Reference is made to one of the case studies of the NAIAD project, namely the Balta Potelu Pond Area (Lower Danube, Romania). Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) were used to describe the system in terms of causal connections and mutual influences, incorporating stakeholders' views and ideas. Inputs from both institutional (e.g. ministries and municipalities) and non-institutional stakeholders (e.g. NGOs and members of the local communities) were integrated. This allowed a comparative assessment of multiple NBSs, based on the analysis of benefits and co-benefits produced, as well as the identification of trade-offs among different stakeholders (e.g. the increase of agricultural production versus biodiversity conservation) and potential side effects. CLDs were then coupled with a Performance Matrix (a basic feature of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis) and fuzzy logic to help decision-makers identify the most suitable NBSs for the area. The whole process was aimed at facilitating the process of NBSs selection and analysis, while considering the multiple impacts associated with their implementation.

Engaging stakeholders in the assessment of NBS effectiveness in flood risk reduction: A participatory System Dynamics Model for benefits and co-benefits evaluation.

There is an imperative worldwide need to identify effective approaches to deal with water-related risks, and mainly with increasingly frequent floods, as well as with severe droughts. Particularly, policy and decision-makers are trying to identify systemic strategies that, going beyond the mere risk reduction, should be capable to deal simultaneously with multiple challenges (such as climate resilience, health and well-being, quality of life), thus providing additional benefits. In this direction, the contribution of Nature Based Solutions (NBS) is relevant, although their wider implementation is still hampered by several barriers, such as the uncertainty and lack of information on their long-term behavior and the difficulty of quantitatively valuing their multidimensional impacts. The activities described in the present paper, carried out within the EU funded project NAIAD, mainly aim at developing a participatory System Dynamic Model capable to quantitatively assess the effectiveness of NBS to deal with flood risks, while producing a multiplicity of co-benefits. The adoption of a participatory approach supported both to increase the available knowledge and the awareness about the potential of NBS and hybrid measures (e.g. a combination of NBS and socio-institutional ones). Specific reference is made to one of the demos of the NAIAD project, namely the Glinscica river case study (Slovenia).

Assessing stakeholders' risk perception to promote Nature Based Solutions as flood protection strategies: The case of the Glinscica river (Slovenia).

Evidences from flood risk management demonstrated that a deep understanding of the main physical phenomena to be addressed is often not enough but should be also integrated with stakeholders' knowledge and risk perception. Particularly, the effectiveness of flood risk management strategies is highly dependent on stakeholders' perception and attitudes, which play a critical role on how individuals and institutions act to mitigate risks. Furthermore, practitioners and policy-makers realized that grey infrastructures may not be the most suitable solution to reduce flood risk, and that a shift from grey solutions to Nature Based Solutions is required. Within this framework, the present work describes a methodology to enhance the Nature Based Solutions implementation by facilitating the generation, acquisition and diffusion of different stakeholders' risk perceptions. It is based on the combination of Problem Structuring Methods for the elicitation of stakeholders' risk perceptions through individual Fuzzy Cognitive Maps, and Ambiguity Analysis for the investigation of differences in risk perceptions and problem framing. The outputs of the Ambiguity Analysis, used during a participatory workshop, facilitated a dialogue aligning the divergences and promoting the social acceptance of Nature Based Solutions. These results of the implementation of this multi-step methodology in the Glinscica river basin (Slovenia) are discussed.

A system dynamics model for supporting decision-makers in irrigation water management.

Water management is a controversial environmental policy issue, due to the heterogeneity of interests associated with a shared resource and the increasing level of conflict among water uses and users. Nowadays, there is a cumulative interest in enhancing multi-stakeholder decision-making processes, overtaking binding mercantile business, in water management domain. This requires the development of dynamic decision-aiding tools able to integrate the different problem frames held by the decision makers, to clarify the differences, to support the creation of collaborative decision-making processes and to provide shared platforms of interactions. In literature, these issues are faced by concepts such as Ostrom's action arena and Ostanello-Tsoukiàs' interaction space (IS). The analysis of the interactions structure and of the different problem framing involved are fundamental premises for a successful debate for the management of a common-pool resource. Specifically, the present paper suggests a dynamic evolution of the IS, highlighting its criticalities. It develops an alternative perspective on the problem, using a System Dynamics Model (SDM), exploring how different actions can influence the decision-making processes of various stakeholders involved in the IS. The SDM has been implemented in a multi-stakeholders decision-making situation in order to support water management and groundwater protection in the agricultural systems in the Capitanata area (Apulia region, Southern Italy).